There is such a problem as too much of a good thing, especially with information, says Nicholas Carr, as he adds his thoughts to a quote from author Nassim Nicholas Taleb‘s book Antifragile.
Tag: Signal
Forecasting
It’s budgeting time where I work, & I found this quote pertinent: “You might call this species of cocked-up forecasting the tyranny of significant digits; more broadly, it is the cardinal mistake of dressing up uncertainty—an incalculable unknown—with risk, a highly calculable gamble with discrete odds. Risk is gambling on a flush in poker, knowing the odds are one in four of drawing the suit that you need; uncertainty is playing poker without a clear idea of the rules or the distribution of cards in the deck.” from Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise. (emphasis mine)