HT to @dsearls watch this video of a conversation betwen a patron calling in to order a pizza. Not very far from the reality
Tag: Predictions
A decade later, has history proved you right? [Article]
In 2003, Harvard Business Review published an post by Nick Carr, who wrote that companies had “overestimated the strategic value of IT, which is becoming ubiquitous, and therefore diminishing as a source of competitive differentiation”. Ten years later, he gazes back at his predictions. An interesting article, for those of us that believe that we will innovate our way out of mankind’s problems, and for those of us that don’t.
2512: A prediction
An attempt to predict the world in 2512 by Charlie Stross: As all such predictions go, past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Forecasting
It’s budgeting time where I work, & I found this quote pertinent: “You might call this species of cocked-up forecasting the tyranny of significant digits; more broadly, it is the cardinal mistake of dressing up uncertainty—an incalculable unknown—with risk, a highly calculable gamble with discrete odds. Risk is gambling on a flush in poker, knowing the odds are one in four of drawing the suit that you need; uncertainty is playing poker without a clear idea of the rules or the distribution of cards in the deck.” from Nate Silver’s book The Signal and the Noise. (emphasis mine)